Predicting Where Lightning is Likely to Strike
People who work out the odds of things happening claim that your lifetime chances of being hit by lightning are as high as 1 in 9,100.
However, new satellite technology has shown us ways to improve these odds. Scientists are now able to look at the global distribution patterns of lightning as a function of latitude, longitude and time of year.
Using two satellite based detectors, scientists can observe the top of clouds that the eyes can’t see. They can readily spot brief lightning flashes, even under daylight conditions. Scientists have used the resulting data to make a new lightning map of the world. This shows us where and when lightning is most likely and least likely to strike.
It seems that lightning avoids the ocean, but rather likes Florida. People living in the Pacific islands rarely see it. The explanation is simple. To form thunderstorms, low lying air needs to be heated. But the ocean surface doesn’t warm up as much as land, so land masses are more susceptible to lightning.
Lightning almost never strikes the North or South Poles, but is quite common all year round in Central Africa. Lightning in the Northern hemisphere occurs mostly in the summer months. In equatorial regions it appears more often in the fall and spring.
So next time you want to reduce the odds of being struck by lightning, consider moving to the Arctic, or to a small Pacific island.
Traditionally, the goals of science have been to describe, predict and control elements in the world of nature. Scientists use observational equipment to gather information. This may be something along the lines of monitoring the where and the when of lightning strikes. Scientists may also perform experiments in order to determine relationships between things or events. If “A” happens, then “B” follows. “A” is the cause, “B” is the effect. Scientific laws are determined through observation and experiment. And science depends on the regularity of nature. The basic assumption of the uniformity of nature is required in order to make science meaningful at all. Therefore, given the same natural conditions, the results of the law of gravity or the law of the conservation of energy would remain the same.
But gaining knowledge is just the first step in the process. When we understand the relationships between things or events, then we can make some tentative predictions. We can predict that as summer approaches, we in the Northern hemisphere will experience more lightning activity along with our oppressive, humid weather and heavy storms. Likewise, knowing the law of gravity and the fragility of china plates, we can predict that our dinnerware will shatter when knocked off the table onto a ceramic floor.
Science also attempts to control things and events. Where possible we can take appropriate action to make this situation happen again (if it is a desirable thing) or to avoid it (if it is unpleasant). Obviously, some situations are more within our grasp than others. Whereas we can’t control the lightning, we can anticipate its likelihood (predict its occurrence) and erect lightning rods on barns or put surge protective devices on our electrical and phone lines to prevent equipment damage in our houses. When we can, we change the very conditions under which a situation operates. We could switch to plastic plates or carpeted floors or consider the possibilities of living on the moon where the force of gravity doesn’t doom plates to falling (but does allow food to float away).
Just as there are laws which operate in the physical realm, so there are spiritual principles of cause and effect. Rebellion brings alienation. Unforgiveness cultivates resentment. Thankfulness inspires generosity. On occasion, the effects follow swiftly upon the heels of the cause. But more often, these effects emerge slowly as they are nurtured in our hearts.
One thing that is useful to remember is that the time required for consequences to be realized does not lessen the surety that they will be. In the spiritual realm, believers are sometimes discouraged as they wait for God to act. Unbelievers grow confident in their position as the years go by. But God is outside of time and because of that is not nearly as concerned with ticking clocks and changing calendars as we mortals are. When we look at the Bible record, we see that God always accomplishes His purposes. He may take longer to do it than we would expect or even desire, but we can be sure that He will.
David Humphreys and Debbie Hughes
© August 2004
