Close Encounters of the Worst Kind
Sometimes I have trouble sleeping, thinking about what might happen tomorrow. Recently, astronomers identified another of those potential close encounters of an asteroid with Earth. But I am not losing sleep over this one.
An asteroid named 1950 DA was first discovered by the Lick Observatory in 1950. It's a rock about a kilometre wide which faded from view for five decades. But currently, it's a greater hazard than any other known asteroid. It will, they claim, have a close encounter with Earth on March 16th 2880. Given the thirty generations between now and when it might hit us, I’m pretty relaxed about this one!
The orbit of the 1950 DA has been mapped using precise radar data and a 51 year span of optical data. How close an asteroid like this will actually approach the Earth depends on a number of properties we can’t yet know for sure. It’s shape, how it spins, how it reflects light and heat into space, all these subtly alter its course over centuries. For example, the process of radiating solar heat in one direction, will slightly nudge the asteroid in the opposite direction. Although the effect is very small, multiplied over centuries, it could make the difference between a hit and a miss.
So next time you can’t sleep at night, think of something more pressing than potential trouble from 1950 DA, almost nine centuries from now.
It is truly amazing how far we have come in recent centuries. It was 400 years ago, during the lifetime of Galileo, that the telescope was invented and put to use in the field of astronomy. New planets came into view. The moon’s smooth appearance was discovered to be quite uneven - full of craters and mountains. Copernicus’ sun-centred theory was verified through visual means.
Since that time, we have developed more powerful and sophisticated observational tools. With the help of satellite technology, we now can see distant asteroids such as the 1950 DA which is a mere kilometre wide. And with the use of computer technology, we can use complex calculations for prediction. Today is the science fiction of yesterday.
Yet there are variables which will affect the probability of an asteroidal impact upon earth. Scientists can identify what these forces and contingencies are likely to be, but they can’t calculate the relative value and weighting of these factors.
When we look down the years of our own lives, we can anticipate some events, some rites of passage. We will likely go through developmental phases of childhood; dating and marriage; education and employment; bearing, rearing and launching children into their own adult lives; retirement from the work that has occupied our adult lives; death.
Two things remain to be seen. One is the way that these typical rites of passage will affect our lives. We will become different people because of them. But what kind of persons we will be is not certain. The other unknown concerns the atypical events of life - those things we aren’t anticipating. These can be wonderful turning points in life or devastating events. Again, we will be changed people. We will not of necessity be better or worse because of them but we will be different.
Sometimes we choose our significant events in life. Obviously, we make these choices because we like them or because we think they would be helpful to us in some way. Other events just happen to us. We don’t have much control in these situations. We are called upon to respond to them, rather than to initiate them.
Our character can be refined during these times. How we respond in our essence to success or failure or crisis is important. These are times when our faith commitment is evident. We might draw on our faith to sustain us during difficult times, or to remind us of our indebtedness to God who blesses us.
To your faith, add virtue; to virtue, knowledge; to knowledge self-control; to self-control perseverance; to perseverance godliness; to godliness, brotherly kindness; and to brotherly kindness love.
Dr. David Humphreys and Debbie Hughes
© August 2004
